Funny thing happened on the way to today...But I'll tell you about that later (with photos!).
For now, I've been asked to make some calls. Remember, I am no expert - frequently I am too emotional about my Oscar selections; I'm trying to think more like an odds-maker and run some numbers, look at past patterns. In the end, though, it's all human nature and there is frankly no way to predict the predictable.
Here are my thoughts on the big deals. Feel free to care or not. (OH! By the way, I broke my previous record of only seeing 3 of the 5 films nominated for Best Picture - I saw 4 this year! I'd like to thank...nevermind).
Actor - Leading: The only big flick I did not get to see (because I just couldn't string together 4 hours in a row for movie-watching this winter), There Will Be Blood, apparently drew an amazing performance from one of my potential second husbands [he had me at his Beautiful Laundrette]. I will succumb to the buzz, and of course my own latent love, and go with Daniel Day-Lewis, even though I have a sneaking suspicion Tommy Lee Jones might get the "We should have done this long ago" award.
Actor - Supporting: Javier Bardem scared my skin off (it was very uncomfortable, and awkward). He must take the award and never do that again.
Actress - Leading: I do love Cate, especially as Elizabeth, and Ellen Page's Juno was a fast-talking delight but after weeping through the La Vie En Rose, they have nothing on Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf. Hers was a performance that made me feel like I was watching the actual woman living on the screen, and I wanted to leap up and grab her, shake her, help her. It was beautifully exhausting.
Actress - Supporting: Another case of me taking the popular road with Amy Ryan - I haven't seen Gone Baby Gone (though I've desperately wanted to; curse you, time!) but trust my best friend when she says it was powerful. The other nominees I've seen (all but Cate as Bob Dylan and usually the double nomination is a killer) did not move me. I actually couldn't remember much of what Ruby Dee did in American Gangster; her nomination does, however, make me think of the "We owe it to you, Seasoned Actress!" thing...
Directing/Picture/Adapted Screenplay: I'm feeling an across the board sweep here for the Coen brothers for their creepy, eerie, spooky, nightmarishly unforgettable No Country for Old Men. Well deserved for keeping me up at night and inspiring fear of the words "Call it."
Original Score: Not that anyone particularly cares, but I'm wounded that 3:10 to Yuma didn't get more love than this category and Sound Mixing (for which I am also choosing them, on principle). But I can feel this music in my bones - not just because I saw the movie three times, whatever - and honestly believe it should take the Oscar. And I so so hope the boys show up to support their composer and sound mixers...
Original Screenplay: I really want to go with Lars and the Real Girl because it was such a fascinating and moving story. But the odds are with Juno, which I loved, and so I will pick it.
And now I have to go walk my red carpet! Tune in after the show!